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1.中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东 广州 510275
2.珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东 广州 510611
Received:19 January 2026,
Revised:2026-03-10,
Accepted:24 March 2026,
Online First:15 May 2026,
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Zhu Haojie, Zhao Tongtiegang, Liu Pei, et al. Water resource dynamics in China’s major river basins (1900-2100): A Budyko equation-based analysis[J/OL]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2026, 1-12.
Zhu Haojie, Zhao Tongtiegang, Liu Pei, et al. Water resource dynamics in China’s major river basins (1900-2100): A Budyko equation-based analysis[J/OL]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2026, 1-12. DOI: 10.11714/acta.snus.ZR20260027.
历史与未来水资源演变规律是流域水资源管理的重要依据。基于Budyko方程和CMIP6多模型数据,采用全微分方法量化降水量和潜在蒸散发量对我国各大流域水资源量演变的驱动贡献。结果表明,历史观测显示我国超40%区域水资源量呈减少趋势,其80%置信区间为-4.13~-2.01 mm/a。SSP126、SSP370和SSP585 3种排放情景下未来水资源量总体增加但时空变异与不确定性显著,西南诸河水资源量变化范围分别为-11.16%~20.49%、-14.70%~28.62%和-10.89%~46.43%。代表性流域的归因分析显示,超60%年份的水资源量减少由降水量减少和潜在蒸散发量增加共同驱动,主导因素因流域和情景而异。降水量减少的相对贡献率随干旱程度增加而增加。干旱区始终以降水量减少为主导因素,其在历史和未来3种排放情景下的贡献率分别为0.93、0.65、0.60和0.60。本研究可为长时间尺度下我国各大流域水资源优化配置提供科学依据。
Understanding historical and future water resources dynamics is essential for sustainable basin management. Using the Budyko equation and CMIP6 multi-model data, a total differential approach was applied to quantify the contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to water resource dynamics across China’s major river basins. Historical observations indicate that water resources declined in over 40% of the country, with an 80% confidence interval of -4.13 to -2.01 mm/a. Under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, water resources show overall increases but with significant spatiotemporal variability and uncertainty. For river basins in Southwest China, the projected variation ranges are -11.16% to 20.49%, -14.70% to 28.62%, and -10.89% to 46.43%, respectively. Attribution analysis across nine representative basins reveals that reduced precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration jointly drive water resource declines in more than 60% of years, with dominant drivers varying by basin and scenario. The relative contribution of decreasing precipitation gradually increases with rising aridity index. Reduced precipitation remains the dominant factor in arid regions, with contribution on rates of 0.93 for the historical period and 0.65, 0.60, and 0.60 for the three future emission scenarios, respectively. This study provides a scientific basis for the long-term optimal allocation of water resources in China’s major river basins.
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